Analysis

National Weather Service issues Coastal Flood Warning

A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Eastern Massachusetts coastline, including Cape Cod and the islands, during the high tides between Thursday morning and Friday morning. The major Nor’easter developing south of Southern New England will bring tides that are much higher than normal, along with large waves for a long-duration that will likely lead to severe beach erosion over the next few days. Click on the interactive map icons below for more details on the flood potential in any given area.



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COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1215 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION LIKELY DURING THE
HIGH TIDES FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING...

.MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE...AND MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. THE STORM SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE
2.5 TO 3 FEET AT MOST EAST COAST LOCATIONS FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAVES OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY REACH 25 TO
30 FEET...HIGHEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION ESPECIALLY SINCE
MANY AREAS ARE STILL VULNERABLE AFTER THE FEBRUARY 9 STORM TIDE.
THERE IS ALSO AN EROSION CONCERN FOR BLOCK ISLAND WHERE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. THERE ARE SOME VULNERABLE AREAS
ON BLOCK ISLAND DUE TO SANDY.

MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024-070115-
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.W.0002.130307T1000Z-130308T1500Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
1215 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...MASSACHUSETTS EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES

* COASTAL FLOODING...GENERALLY MODERATE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
  THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  LIKELY FOR THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE. MODERATE TO MAJOR
  COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...AROUND HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS 630 AM TO 8 AM THURSDAY
  MORNING...7 PM TO 830 PM THURSDAY EVENING...AND 730 AM TO 9 AM
  FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY
  MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES...WHICH ARE HIGHER
  ASTRONOMICALLY THAN THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

* IMPACTS...INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR IN VULNERABLE
  LOCATIONS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH SPOTTY
  DAMAGE POSSIBLE FROM WAVES. A FEW AREAS MAY NEED TO BE
  EVACUATED AS A PRECAUTION. THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE HAS
  THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE DANGEROUS AND COULD BE SIMILAR TO OR
  IN A FEW SPOTS EVEN WORSE THAN THE FEBRUARY 9 STORM TIDE. SOME
  AREAS MAY BE INUNDATED WITH 2 TO 4 FEET OF WATER DURING THE
  FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE... ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS
  VULNERABLE TO WAVE OVERWASH. LARGE WAVES MAY CAUSE SCATTERED
  DAMAGE TO VULNERABLE STRUCTURES...AND SOME EVACUATIONS MAY
  BECOME NECESSARY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY
  THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME BEACH EROSION IS
  POSSIBLE EVEN INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONCERN FOR THE
  UPCOMING EPISODE OF COASTAL FLOODING IS HEIGHTENED BY THE
  EXPECTED DURATION THROUGH MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES AND EXISTING
  VULNERABILITIES FROM THE FEBRUARY 9 EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MODERATE OR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING PRODUCES WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF
VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF
STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION. NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ARE NEEDED.
LIVES MAY BE AT RISK FOR PEOPLE WHO PUT THEMSELVES IN HARMS WAY.
ISOLATED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE MAY BE OBSERVED.

&&

&&

ALL TIDE HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR.

NEWBURYPORT

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     9.5    06/07 AM     8.4      1.2      6-7       NONE
     9.2    07/07 PM     7.7      1.5      9-11      NONE
    11.3    07/07 AM     9.0      2.3     11-18    MINOR-MDT
    10.7    07/08 PM     7.9      2.8       21      MINOR
    11.8    08/08 AM     9.0      2.8     17-19    MODERATE
    10.1    08/09 PM     8.2      1.9     13-16     MINOR

GLOUCESTER HARBOR

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
    10.1    06/07 AM     8.8      1.3      6-7       NONE
    10.1    06/06 PM     8.4      1.7     10-12      NONE
    12.1    07/07 AM     9.7      2.4     19-23     MINOR
    11.1    07/08 PM     8.6      2.5     24-26     MINOR
    12.3    08/08 AM     9.9      2.4     20-21    MINOR-MDT
    10.6    08/09 PM     8.9      1.7     18-19      NONE

REVERE

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
    10.6    06/07 AM     9.2      1.4      4-5       NONE
    10.4    06/06 PM     8.7      1.7      8-9       NONE
    12.7    07/07 AM    10.1      2.6     10-13    MINOR-MDT
    12.0    07/08 PM     9.0      3.0       15     MODERATE
    12.8    08/08 AM    10.3      2.5     13-14    MODERATE
    11.3    08/09 PM     9.4      1.9       11      MINOR

BOSTON HARBOR

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
    10.4    06/07 AM     9.0      1.4      2-3       NONE
    10.4    06/06 PM     8.7      1.7       3        NONE
    12.6    07/07 AM    10.0      2.6       3       MINOR
    11.9    07/08 PM     8.9      3.0       3       MINOR
    13.0    08/08 AM    10.2      2.8       3      MINOR-MDT
    11.2    08/09 PM     9.3      1.9       3        NONE

SCITUATE

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
    10.5    06/07 AM     9.1      1.4      5-6       NONE
    10.3    06/06 PM     8.6      1.7     10-11     MINOR
    12.7    07/07 AM    10.0      2.7     20-24    MODERATE
    11.9    07/08 PM     8.9      3.0     24-25    MODERATE
    12.9    08/08 AM    10.1      2.8     22-25    MDT-MAJOR
    11.1    08/09 PM     9.2      1.9     18-19     MINOR

SANDWICH HARBOR

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     9.5    06/07 AM     8.5      1.0      3-4       NONE
     9.9    06/06 PM     8.2      1.7       6        NONE
    12.6    07/07 AM     9.5      3.1     14-21    MDT-MAJOR
    11.4    08/07 PM     8.4      3.0     22-23    MODERATE
    13.4    08/08 AM     9.6      3.8     19-20     MAJOR
    10.7    08/08 PM     8.7      2.0       19      MINOR

PROVINCETOWN HARBOR

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     9.5    06/07 AM     9.1      0.4      4-5       NONE
     9.6    06/06 PM     8.7      0.9      7-8       NONE
    11.5    07/07 AM    10.1      1.4      9-15    MINOR-MDT
    10.3    08/07 PM     8.9      1.4     14-15      NONE
    11.3    08/08 AM    10.2      1.1       10      MINOR
    10.1    08/09 PM     9.3      0.8     11-12      NONE

CHATHAM - EAST COAST

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     6.1    06/07 AM     4.6      1.5      5-6       NONE
     5.7    07/07 PM     3.8      1.9     10-12      NONE
     8.2    07/08 AM     4.7      3.5     17-18     MINOR
     7.6    07/08 PM     3.9      3.7       28      MINOR
     8.3    08/09 AM     4.7      3.6      19-1    MINOR-MDT
     6.7    08/09 PM     4.1      2.6     19-20      NONE

CHATHAM - SOUTH COAST

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     4.8    06/07 AM     4.5      0.3      4-5       NONE
     4.3    07/07 PM     3.6      0.7      6-7       NONE
     5.3    07/07 AM     4.5      0.8       8        NONE
     4.5    07/08 PM     3.7      0.8       8        NONE
     5.4    08/09 AM     4.6      0.8       8        NONE
     4.5    08/09 PM     3.8      0.7      7-8       NONE

BUZZARDS BAY - WOODS HOLE

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     2.1    06/03 PM     1.5      0.6       4        NONE
     2.6    07/04 AM     2.1      0.6      5-6       NONE
     2.1    07/04 PM     1.7      0.4       6        NONE
     2.7    08/05 AM     2.2      0.5      5-6       NONE
     2.5    08/05 PM     1.9      0.6       5        NONE

VINEYARD HAVEN

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     3.2    06/07 AM     2.4      0.8      3-4       NONE
     3.8    07/07 PM     1.8      2.0       5        NONE
     5.3    07/07 AM     2.6      2.7      6-7      MINOR
     5.0    07/08 PM     2.0      3.0       6        NONE
     5.0    08/08 AM     2.6      2.4       6        NONE
     4.3    08/09 PM     2.1      2.2       5        NONE

NANTUCKET HARBOR

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     4.6    06/07 AM     3.7      0.9      4-5       NONE
     4.0    07/07 PM     2.7      1.3      6-7       NONE
     6.0    07/08 AM     3.7      2.3       8      MODERATE
     5.6    07/08 PM     2.8      2.8       7      MINOR-MDT
     6.5    08/09 AM     3.7      2.8       8      MODERATE
     5.4    08/10 PM     3.0      2.4      7-8     MINOR-MDT

NANTUCKET EAST COAST

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     4.1    06/07 AM     3.8      0.3      5-6       NONE
     4.8    07/07 PM     2.9      1.9      9-12     MINOR
     6.7    07/07 AM     3.8      2.9       15     MODERATE
     6.3    07/08 PM     3.0      3.3     27-28     MAJOR
     6.2    08/09 AM     3.8      2.4     18-29    MDT-MAJOR
     5.3    08/09 PM     3.1      2.2     21-22    MODERATE

NANTUCKET SOUTH COAST

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     3.8    06/07 AM     3.6      0.2      4-5       NONE
     3.5    07/07 PM     2.7      0.8      9-11      NONE
     4.3    07/08 AM     3.6      0.7     13-15      NONE
     3.6    07/08 PM     2.8      0.8     16-18      NONE
     4.4    08/09 AM     3.6      0.8     13-15      NONE
     3.8    08/09 PM     2.9      0.9     11-12      NONE

$$

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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